Hope or nightmare? What will the e-cigarette industry do after the US election?


Less than 10 days before the US election, according to the current public opinion survey, the Democratic Party is still far ahead. If nothing happens, the Democrats will be in the White House and have control of both houses of Congress. In this way, the Democratic Party will monopolize the entire legislative process in the United States. But the Democratic Party is extremely unfriendly to the tobacco industry, both traditional cigarettes and new e-cigarettes. This is their consistent political proposition for decades, so the rise of the Democratic Party will be a disaster for the domestic e-cigarette industry.

I vape I vote

The e-cigarette market in the United States is the largest single market for domestic enterprises, accounting for at least half of the country. Therefore, the current political changes in the United States have a significant impact on the domestic industry.

According to the survey of the U.S. government, the use rate of cigarettes is just inversely proportional to the social economic status (SES) of the users. Low income, low education accounted for the largest proportion of smokers, the number of smokers of color was much higher than that of white people. People with low SES are more dependent on nicotine and less likely to quit smoking. And tobacco companies have long been more committed to low SES people as their target consumer groups.

Generally speaking, the Democratic Party represents the interests of the working class. Therefore, anti smoking and anti nicotine are the political views of the Democratic Party politicians as always. Because they don’t know about e-cigarettes, they compare them to cigarettes.

In the United States, more than 50 members of the house of representatives have a deep misunderstanding of e-cigarettes. Raja krishnamourthi of Indian origin and Peter King, who represents the state of New York, are among the representatives. Due to their misunderstanding of e-cigarettes, they put forward various laws to control e-cigarettes every month. In the Senate, Patty Murray, who is in charge of the public health committee, and Dick Dubin, the No. 2 Democrat, are in tune with the house of Representatives, which is devastating to the e-cigarette industry.

Therefore, the advantage of the Democratic Party will increase the supervision of e-cigarette industry. Specifically, it will be reflected in the following aspects:

1.PACT act

The bill was originally made in 2009 to prevent cigarette smuggling. The law defines cross state cigarette trade as illegal, so there is no online purchase of cigarettes. A supplementary bill to incorporate e-cigarettes into the pact act has been passed by a full vote in the Senate. When the Democratic Party controls the house and Senate and the White House, there should be no suspense about including e-cigarettes in this bill. Then the United States will be like the domestic, online sales will be completely banned. An important sales channel for domestic manufacturers to survive will be destroyed. The amendment is expected to be passed by the end of the year and implemented in 90 days.

2.PMTA

Generally speaking, the Democratic Party is very dissatisfied with the current FDA regulation of e-cigarettes. They feel that the FDA is too slow, too little and too weak. But now that the PMTA has finally passed its deadline, the Democratic Party will not overturn it completely. Instead, they will follow the PMTA to suppress the market. They will force the FDA to strictly enforce PMTA. Through PMTA, the taste, Juul, disposable cigarettes and other products will be killed. At the same time, there will be great restrictions on advertising and marketing. Under the control of the Democratic Party, products without application for PMTA are unlikely to have a chance of survival. Because of the Democratic Party’s long-standing struggle with big tobacco companies, it is difficult for big tobacco companies to gain the upper hand in this round.

3. Taxation

At present, the U.S. government charges a federal tax of $1 per pack of cigarettes, and each state has its own plan to charge state taxes ranging from $0.65 to $12, and some places have local taxes. That’s why the same package of Marlboro is $5 in South Carolina and $15 in New York. E-cigarettes will soon face a unified federal tax. The Democratic Party has always believed that if the price of cigarettes or e-cigarettes is higher than the customers can afford, the consumption will be reduced accordingly, especially for the youth group. Reasonable tax cannot be avoided, but punitive tax will have a fatal impact on the industry.

Although they are far away from the United States, their political situation will have a far-reaching impact on China as the domestic market is under their control. Generally speaking, with the rise of the Democratic Party, the whole e-cigarette industry will face an extremely long winter!



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